Thursday, February 7, 2008

Fears of recession gripping the world -- Bank of England cuts interest rates to 5.25%

The Bank of England has cut interest rates by a quarter point to 5.25 per cent despite calls for a half point cut.

The Bank's move will be welcomed by many mortgage borrowers, but homeowners who do not have a mortgage deal directly linked to the base rate may be disappointed as some lenders have been increasing their own rates in anticipation of a cut.

Michael Coogan, director general of the Council of Mortgage Lenders, said: "This is good news for the quarter of UK borrowers on tracker rates who will see an imminent reduction in rates. However, borrowers should not expect that a base rate reduction will automatically result in a cut in standard variable rates or discounted rates across the market.

"Lenders' rate setting policies are more complex than simply the level of the base rate. They are determined by a range of factors including the cost of retail funding and the cost and availability of wholesale funding."

Mortgage lenders called for another cut in the coming months.

Ben Thompson, of Legal & General Mortgages, said: "Today's rate cut was a dead cert but at least one more is needed this year to kick-start the mortgage market again. While council tax, utility bills and household costs have risen by more than a third in the past four years, the average family is £1300 worse off a year."

The widely expected quarter point cut by the Central Bank was modest compared to the recent cuts made by the Federal Reserve in the US which cut interest rates by a total of 1.25 percentage points in the last three weeks.

But while the Federal Reserve's central mandate is to ensure economic growth, UK rate-setters are focused on keeping inflation at 2 per cent, giving them much less room to move.

The decision by the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee comes as more evidence emerges of a slowdown in economic growth both in the UK and overseas.

Mervyn King, the Governor of the Bank of England, said recently that the current rate of 5.5 per cent is "bearing down on demand."

An important survey for Bank of England policymakers released several days ago showed that while Britain's service sector grew at a faster rate than expected in January, confidence among purchasing managers fell to its lowest level in six years.

Manufacturing growth in the UK also slowed to a two and half year low in January raising fears of a reduction in GDP, the measure of how much the economy is growing.

Retail sales were also weak in January.

Speaking in London last night, Alistair Darling sought to reassure consumers that the economic outlook was not too bleak, but he did admit that "The global economy is facing its biggest test in more than a decade."

But the Bank's hands were tied from making a more dramatic move by inflationary pressures.

Many families are being faced with higher energy bills after several of the major energy companies increased their tarriffs.

Mortgage bills are also higher for most families as the bank base rate is one percentage point higher than it was 18 months ago. Mortgage lenders are also increasing their rates in an effort to boost their profits in the wake of the credit crunch. On top of all that, council tax and water bills are also rising.

The Bank's MPC also had access to the latest inflation figures during its deliberations. These will not be released publicly until next week, but today's move indicates that they presented a challenge for the panel.

Rel Ent IPO

Anil Ambani is planning another initial public offer (IPO). After Reliance Power and Reliance Infratel, Reliance-ADA Group company Reliance Entertainment is now understood to be finalising plans for an IPO.

The company is expected to file the Draft Red Herring Prospectus (DHRP) with the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) soon after the budget. Reliance Infratel, which had filed the DHRP prospectus on February 4, would receive the mandatory approval in the next 15 days.

For the Reliance Entertainment issue, Kotak Mahindra and JM Financials are likely to be the investment bankers. A spokesperson for the ADA Group said: "We do not want to comment on speculation." An analyst with a Mumbai-based research firm said: "Right now, it is difficult to arrive at a valuation for Reliance Entertainment. There could be restructuring of the company's businesses. This could involve transferring certain related businesses to Reliance Entertainment."

After soaring to their peaks, valuations of entertainment companies have taken a major hit during the recent market meltdown. While TV 18 has a market capitalisation (price multiplied by the number of traded shares) of Rs 4,961 crore as on February 6 2007, UTV's market capitalisation was at Rs 1,961 crore.

The group has put all its new-age businesses like gaming and home entertainment under Reliance Entertainment. While Zapak is company's gaming business, BigFlicks is its home entertainment venture.

The company is also eyeing a presence in the television segment through channels it has planned to launch. "Reliance Entertainment is taking its time to decide whether the IPO should be timed before the launch of its DTH service-Big TV or after it," said the executive of an entertainment channel

IPO Research

Company Open/Close Offer Price Premium Rates
Globus Spirits Ltd 07 Feb - 12 Feb 140 to 160 ------- -------
SVEC Constructions Ltd 04 Feb - 08 Feb 85 to 95 3 to 4 -------
Emaar MGF Land Limited 01 Feb - 11 Feb 540 to 630 14 to 15 -------
Manjushree 31 Jan - 06 Feb 45 Discount -------
Tulsi Extrusions Limited 01 Feb - 05 Feb 80 to 85 10 to 11 2100 to 2300
Wockhardt Hospitals 01 Feb - 07 Feb 225 to 260 Discount -------
IRB Infrastructure Developers Limited 31 Jan - 05 Feb 185 to 220 21 to 22 -------
Shriram EPC Limited 29 Jan - 01 Feb 290 to 330 Discount -------
Bang Overseas Limited 28 Jan - 31 Jan 200 to 207 11 to 12 -------
KNR Constructions Limited 24 Jan - 29 Jan 170 to 180 Discount -------
OnMobile Global Limited 24 Jan - 29 Jan 425 to 450 12 to 14 -------
Cords Cable Industries 21 Jan - 24 Jan 125 to 135 4 to 4.50 -------
J.Kumar Infraprojects Limited 18 Jan - 23 Jan 110 to 120 Discount -------
Reliance Power Limited 15 Jan - 18 Jan 405 to 450 145 to 155 -------

Sell R power on listing

Business: R POWER.

The company claims that it will be developing power generation
projects of 28200 MW over the next decade.

According to the IPO RHP, some of the projects that it will be
developing are:

Rosa-I (to be commissioned in March 2010) - 600 MW - Coal based.
Butibori (to be commissioned in June 2010) - 300 MW - Coal based.
Rosa-II (to be commissioned in September 2010) - 600 MW - Coal based.
Shahpur Gas (to be commissioned in March 2011) - 2800 MW - Gas based.
Shahpur Coal (to be commissioned in December 2011) - 1200 MW - Coal
based.
Dadri (to be commissioned in March 2013) - 7480 MW - Gas based.
Krishnapatnam (to be commissioned in September 2013) - 4000 MW - Coal
based.
Urthing Sobla (to be commissioned in March 2014) - 400 MW - Hydropower
based.
Tato II (to be commissioned in March 2014) - 700 MW - Hydropower
based.
MP Power (to be commissioned in July 2014) - 3960 MW - Coal based.
Siyom (to be commissioned in March 2015) - 1000 MW - Hydropower based.
Kalai II (to be commissioned in March 2016) - 1200 MW - Hydropower
based.
Sasan (to be commissioned in April 2016) - 3960 MW - Coal based.

If

everything goes as planned, capacity of Reliance Power at end of each
year till 2016 will be:

2008: 0 MW.
2009: 0 MW.
2010: 1500 MW.
2011: 5500 MW.
2012: 5500 MW.
2013: 16980 MW.
2014: 22040 MW.
2015: 23040 MW.
2016: 28200 MW.

============ ========= ========= =========

Other Similar Companies:

I can think of two companies in the power generation sector that
Reliance Power can be compared with:

NTPC and Tata Power.

NTPC has current capacity of 28000 MW and has target to achieve 66000
MW by 2017. ( See this thread on NTPC).

Tata Power has current capacity of 2300 MW.
It will be adding 10000 MW of capacity more by 2012. Thus, it will
have a capacity of around 12300 MW by 2012 end.
The additions will all be coal based.
-Mundra Ultra Mega Power Project -4000 MW.
-Power plants in Maharastra - 3000 MW.
-Captive power plants for Tata Steel - 2000 MW
-Maithon Power Plant at Jharkhand - 1000 MW.

Tata Power also has other smaller business and also wants to enter
shipping and logistics. Besides that Tata Power has investments valued
at Rs 400+ per share of Tata Power. This works out to be Rs 10000
crore.

Around 2012 - 2013, both Tata Power is expected to have similar
capacity as Reliance Power.

The interesting thing is at current price of Rs 1457, Tata Power is
valued at just Rs 30000 crore. Remove Rs 10000 crore of investments
and you can have it only for Rs 20000 crore.

At Rs 900, Reliance Power will have market value of 200000 crores....
6. 67 times that of Tata Power. .

============ ========= ========= ========= =

Financials:

With 2300 MW capacity, Tata Power made standalone profit of Rs 700
crore in FY 2007.

With 28000 MW capacity, NTPC made standalone profit of Rs 6900 crore
in FY 2007.

Lets assume Reliance Power turns out to be much more efficient than
these two companies. Add to that increased power rates.

With 28200 capacity, assume Reliance Power makes Rs 15000 crore of net
profit in 2016-2017. Power companies are considered as utilities and
worldwide trade at 10-15 times their earnings.

Lets assume 15 times ratio for Reliance Power in 2016.

What will be its market value?

15000 X 15 = Rs 225000 crore or Rs 995 per share.

This is an optimistic view:
-there will be no further equity dilution till 2016.
-assuming nearly twice as much efficiency as NTPC.
-that all projects will be completed before 2016 end.
-the company would have paid back all debt by then and interest costs
would be in similar range as NTPC.

(NTPC already has established 28000 MW capacity and comparatively much
lesser interest costs. (NTPC's P&L account states Rs 1800 interest
cost for FY 2007).

So what about the debt?

The RHP mentions estimated cost of six projects Rosa I, Rosa II,
Butibori, Sasan, Shahpur Coal, Urthing Sobla as Rs 30000 crore+.

Analysts estimate that Reliance Power will need Rs 70000 crore of debt
to finance its projects which are estimated to cost 100000 crore+.

Rs 70000 crore of debt is not going to come at 2% interest rate. Even
a 6% interest would mean an annual interest cost of Rs 4200 crore.
Only in 2013, the company's capacity will cross 10000 MW. Thus, I do
not expect any major debt repayment before 2014. If things don't go as
planned, the debt burden will make a mockery of the balance sheet.

With Rs 12000 crore raised in equity and Rs 70000 crore of debt, these
whole business will become a high-risk venture.

Any unforeseen delay/derailment of plans may create major problems for
this company.

============ ========= ========= ========= =

Reliance Power - The Overlooked Fact:

Is Reliance Power just "Reliance Power"?

No.

It is actually "Reliance Power Limited" - a limited company.

So what does this mean for Reliance Power Limited?

It means if in the rare case, the calculations of the management go
wrong and the company somehow goes to insolvency, none of the
shareholders will lose anything expect the value of the shares.

If you are a share holder of Reliance Power and it goes into
insolvency (unable to pay back debts), what do you stand to lose?

Rs 430 per share.

Lot of money....right?

What does Anil Ambani's AAA Project or REL lose?

Both of them had got their 45% (post-IPO) stake for Rs 1000 crore
each. Plus they will each subscribe to 1.6 crore shares each at Rs 450
in the IPO......which works out to be Rs 720 crore.

Thus, AAA Project will be getting 101.6 crore shares of Reliance Power
for Rs 1720 crore and REL will be getting 101.6 crore shares of
Reliance Power for Rs 1720 crore.

Little less than Rs 17 per share.

This is what both the promoters are risking in this project....Rs 17
per share ; while investors will be risking Rs 450 per share.

This is exactly the reason why Reliance Power was created.

First, by contributing just Rs 1720 crore each to Reliance Power, the
promoters have shifted all risk to investors.

Second, by getting 45% stake (in REL's projects) to AAA Project for a
mere Rs 1000 crore, AAA Projects (and Anil Ambani) have created wealth
out of thin air.

Anil Ambani's Rs 1000 crore investment will be worth Rs 100000 crore
when Reliance Power lists at Rs 900.

If the gamble works, the promoters (holding 90% stake in Reliance
Power) will be worth billions of dollars.

If the gamble doesn't work, the promoters will lose Rs 1720 crore each
and investors will lose Rs 10000+ crore which they will be paying for
a mere 10% stake in Reliance Power.

What a way to create wealth...!!! ....I don't have words to describe
the brilliance of Anil Ambani's plans... .

============ ========= ========= ========= =

First, other companies are much cheaper.

Why should I keep a company valued at Rs 200000 crore -

when another company (with similar capacity by 2013) is available at
Rs 30000 crore with much smaller debt burden and Rs 10000 crore worth
of investments...........referrin g to Tata Power.

If Reliance Power (at Rs 900) is available for Rs 200000 crore, why
not buy NTPC for a similar price ......Rs 225000 crore. NTPC plans to
have a capacity of 66000 MW in 2017, while Reliance Power will have
28200 MW capacity in 2016.

Second, the risk is higher than other existing companies.

With marginally cash flows for next 5 years and Rs 70000+ crore of
debt, the risk for Reliance Power is high. Tata Power and NTPC have
existing cash flows to handle expansions.. ..Reliance Power does not.

Third and the biggest factor is....the valuation of the company
doesn't make much sense.

Why should Reliance Power be valued at Rs 200000 crore, when in highly
optimistic scenario, it will not make more than Rs 15000 crore of
profit in 2016? Even if it touches that figure of Rs 15000 crore, its
market value in 2016 will not be much more than 225000-300000 crore.
(if given a 15-20 times multiple).

A fixed deposit will make more money than that in 8 years.....and that
too without any risk.

Also, I got the optimistic Rs 15000 crore figure by assuming two times
margins as NTPC.

The fact is..... at least till 2014, Reliance Power will still be
carrying most of its Rs 70000 crore debt and its interest costs will
squeeze margins to a large extent.
-------------------------

This article misses the fact that the money is being raised only for
first 6 projects. For the other 7 projects their will be further
dilution. So, figures will become worse.

Adlabs Rumour

ADLABS...........
STREET HAS IT that it may announce to set up ASIAs largest multiplex cum mall @ AURANGABAD (famous for ellora & ajanta caves ) in maharashtra...

ManjuShree IPO

Vimal kedia is flexible /blow packaging king guru ! But business is commodity guru and competition is fierce. To make bottles and zars for pickles,milk powder,tea/coffe jars etc.

Nowadays client are moving to do Blow extrusion themselves, as that will save cost and transportation, as when you transport fully blown bottle you also transport air with it which is costly,and you may damage the bottle in transportation too.
As clients are moving in blow-up jobs. Blow-up moulders are moving to do PET kit. This are small cylindrical PET bottle. Which u can do economically if you employ a large imported machine which gives scale. These small bottles are supplied to clients to do blow moulding themselves.

Right now there are few doing this PET bottles. Like AMD metplast, 3-4 more. But many will catch up once they see this IPO or RPO/FPO and margin improvements.

Rights shares are being acquired at Rs.30 and Follow-on shares are offered at Rs.45.
Mgt. is king in packaging, but last shareholders were not got any reward. Take your decision Guru

Wockhardt Hospital

Discount hi Discount!
Fortis Hospital given @108rs., now available @72rs. They also talked about doubling nos. of hospitals.

Very tough business guru! Low ROE 10%, continuous capital requirement to expand. 6-8yrs. payback. machinery wl get outdated and requires replacement. Do not think mgt. can break shackles of business, will require more time. Buy Apollo guru, Still 10-15% cheaper than Wockhardt (@225Rs.). So you will get listing money only when mgt.lowers lower price band by another 25-30%. Not possible! guru.

Baki,The fundamentals and objectives of the issues are good. I guess it will be a good time u get money back. If u buy hold it for 1-2 yrs