The price of gold will soon make a new high(Although I will sell if I see $938 in next couple of days on intraday basis) People around the globe are running towards precious metals. Platinium makes a new record daily. Silver is outperforming gold. This all could be the economic indicators that we are overlooking. The overall economic scenario around the world looks fragile.Is it too late too talk about this now? What will happen next? what about the India growth story?
The Indian growth story is very much intact I would say but, the world growth tale(fable) doesn't looks so great. So we thought that the subprime crisis gave us the bad times. Hello! this could just be the start. The losses till date reported have come from the sell side firms only which could be around say $400 billion ++. But what about those players who are on the buy side. what about those who have bought these structured products (credit derivatives). They are yet to show up. Even in India it was reported that few banks would have been carrying these items in there portfolio(reported by NDTV profit). Is it over? Not yet. As the grapevine goes we are into the corrective wave of the five way Indian bull market(Elliott wave theory) and not to mention the gap the charts showing gap at around 14500 on the sensex(Indian Index).
What I want to bring to the notice is that there will be some trigger which could take the world markets for the surprise (Dont forget commodity market is also rallying esp. Precious and base metals). So this all need to correct. This happened in 2006 may when all the markets corrected. This time the trigger could be anything inflation, more losses could come out, could be budjet or it could even be Kosovo-Serbia clash.
Some how all this is not fitting right. People should invest keeping all this in mind and be catious. Technically everything needs a correction. We just need to identify are we with the trend or with the correction of that trend.
Any views are most Welcomed
Wednesday, February 20, 2008
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